Scenario Simulation of Built-up Land Expansion in the Central Region of China Based on the PLUS Model and Its Landscape Pattern Analysis

School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Against the backdrop of new-type urbanization and the transformation of territorial spatial governance, built-up land expansion and its associated landscape patterns vary significantly under different development policy orientations, making quantitative evaluation through scenario simulation essential. This study takes six provinces in the Central Region of China as the study area and employs land-use data from 2010 and 2020 together with the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model to simulate built-up land evolution from 2030 to 2050. At both regional and provincial scales, changes in the scale of built-up land under different scenarios are systematically analyzed. Landscape metrics, including Patch Density (PD), Largest Patch Index (LPI), Landscape Shape Index (LSI), and Aggregation Index (AI), are used to quantitatively characterize built-up land expansion and landscape pattern evolution. The results indicate that under the Natural Development Scenario, built-up land expands rapidly with strong path dependence, exerting continuous pressure on cropland and ecological space. In contrast, the Balanced Scenario effectively restrains expansion scale and rate, promoting a transition toward compact and intensive development. Based on scenario responses at the provincial scale, the six provinces can be classified into high expansion response, moderate adjustment, and low expansion stability types. Scenario comparison further demonstrates that balanced and coordinated development significantly improves spatial optimization, curbs disorderly expansion, and reduces landscape complexity, highlighting its importance for guiding high-quality built-up land development.