Policy and financial viability framework for community-based biomass power plants in Sri Lanka: Integrating coconut by-products, BCG economy principles, and AI-based biomass forecasting toward COP-28 goals

Computer Engineering and Financial Technology Department, University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), Bangkok, Thailand

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Abstract

The transition toward low-carbon energy under COP-28 and the Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy Model requires solutions that connect financial viability with rural development. In Sri Lanka, biomass power generation using coconut husks and shells offers strong potential, yet many projects remain marginally profitable since feed-in tariffs do not fully reflect debt repayment or community participation. This study proposes a policy- driven framework combining Michael Porter's Diamond Model with techno- economic analysis to assess competitiveness and income distribution. Field data show Lower Heating Values increasing from 2,676 to 3,681 kcal/kg with coconut maturity. A 9.9 MW power plant model demonstrates that at 0.10 USD/kWh tariff, the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) is 0.98, while 0.12 USD/kWh raises it to 1.23 and allows 27% higher farmer payments. The framework highlights how modest tariff reform can make biomass energy both bankable and socially inclusive.