Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Air Pollution in Central Asian Urban Agglomerations: Integrating Ground-Based Monitoring, Satellite Remote Sensing, and Health Risk Assessment

Department of Public Health and Healthcare Management № 1, Tashkent State Medical University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Air pollution poses a critical health risk in Central Asia, yet multi-city assessments remain scarce. This study presents a secondary analysis of publicly available data on air pollution dynamics in four major cities—Tashkent, Almaty, Bishkek, and Dushanbe—over 2015–2025, integrating ground monitoring records, satellite observations (TROPOMI, MODIS, CALIPSO), and health statistics. Based on this analysis, PM2.5 concentrations are persistently high, with annual means from 25.6 μg/m³ (Dushanbe) to 38.4 μg/m³ (Almaty), far exceeding WHO guidelines. Winter concentrations are 2.5–3.5 times higher than summer, reaching 68.2 μg/m³ in Almaty and 65.8 μg/m³ in Bishkek, driven by residential heating (52–55% of winter PM2.5) and temperature inversions. Source apportionment identifies five contributors: residential heating, traffic, industry, secondary aerosol, and dust, with city-specific patterns. Health impact assessment estimates 7,800 premature deaths annually across the four cities attributable to PM2.5, with older adults (65+ years) bearing a disproportionate burden (55–65% of mortality). Residential heating dominates winter pollution in Almaty and Bishkek, while traffic emissions contribute year-round across all cities. Priority interventions include clean fuel subsidies, stove replacement, and vehicle emissions standards. This assessment provides evidence for targeted air quality strategies in Central Asia, supporting SDG 3, SDG 11, and SDG 13.