Resilience-Oriented Evaluation of Campus Recycling Systems Using Multi-Criteria Decision Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation

School of Design and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China

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Abstract

With the increasing complexity of campus waste management, addressing external uncertainties while sustaining system resilience has become a major challenge for sustainable governance. This study focuses on executing and user groups within campus recycling, examining how their service preferences shift under disturbance scenarios and what this implies for resilience-oriented design. By integrating the PAPRIKA method with Feasible Weight Space (FWS) modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, we systematically analyzed the variation and consistency of attribute weights across scenarios. The results show that executing groups consistently prioritized "incentive mechanisms" and "tool provision," especially under higher task pressure, while user groups emphasized "disposal time" and, under high stress, demanded improved facility layout and capacity. Overall, both groups exhibited stable preference structures, highlighting system resilience. Accordingly, resilience-oriented campus recycling should reinforce support for executing groups while offering flexible disposal schedules and optimized facility layouts to enhance adaptability and sustainability under uncertainty.