Energy security index towards net-zero emissions in Nigeria

¹ The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Thailand
² Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Thailand
³ Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Thailand
⁴ Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment (CEE), Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI), Bangkok, Thailand

^* Corresponding Author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

This study evaluates Nigeria’s energy security within the framework of the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan by constructing a composite Energy Security Index (ESI) using nine indicators grouped into availability, resilience, and sustainability & affordability. Historical data (2000–2024) and projected trends to 2060 were standardized using a min–max method and aggregated through linear weighting. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were applied using Optimistic, Business-as-Usual (BAU), and Pessimistic pathways. The results show that availability declined due to infrastructure deterioration, refinery inefficiencies, and rising import dependence. Resilience remained persistently weak, constrained by grid instability, limited diversification, and low system redundancy. Sustainability & affordability also underperformed historically because of fossil-fuel dependence and slow renewable energy adoption. From 2030 onward, all scenarios indicate recovery, though at different rates. Resilience improves first through diversification and infrastructure upgrades, followed by availability gains as domestic supply expands and import dependence declines. Sustainability rises more rapidly after 2030, supported by renewable deployment and decarbonization measures. By 2060, the Optimistic scenario records the strongest overall performance, while BAU shows moderate progress, and the Pessimistic pathway remains constrained. The framework can support policymakers in prioritizing investments, monitoring transition progress, and identifying future energy security risks.