Disentangling Emission Drivers in a Rural Territorial System: Integrated GHG Inventory and Mitigation Scenarios in Northern Morocco

Laboratory of Research and Development in Applied Geosciences, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technique of Al Hoceima, Abdelmalek Essaâdi University, Al Hoceima 32000, Morocco

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Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions at the local scale result from interactions between energy systems, land use, and socio-economic activities. This study quantifies emissions in Ait Youssef Ou Ali Municipality (Morocco) for 2024 using the IPCC 2006 methodology, combining sectoral analysis, gas characterization, and scenario-based projections.

Total emissions reach 43.38 Gg CO₂eq, with a strong dominance of the energy sector (46.56 Gg CO₂eq), driven by industrial activities, road transport, and public lighting. In contrast, the AFOLU sector acts as a net carbon sink (−7.01 Gg CO₂eq) due to vegetation and soil carbon sequestration. The waste sector contributes 3.75 Gg CO₂eq, mainly through methane emissions from solid waste. CO₂ represents the largest share of emissions, while CH₄ and N₂O remain lower in volume but significant due to their higher global warming potential. Scenario analysis highlights divergent trajectories. Under a Business As Usual scenario, emissions increase to 51.63 Gg CO₂eq by 2030. Under a mitigation scenario aligned with national targets (−17%), emissions stabilize at 42.85 Gg CO₂eq, avoiding 8.78 Gg CO₂eq.

The results show that emission dynamics are strongly influenced by territorial structure and policy intervention. Effective mitigation requires targeted actions in energy systems, transport, waste management, and carbon sequestration. Local inventories thus provide a critical basis for climate planning and territorially adapted mitigation strategies..