| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 489, 2024
4th International GIRE3D Congress “Participatory and Integrated Management of Water Resources in Arid Zones” (GIRE3D 2023)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 04015 | |
| Number of page(s) | 7 | |
| Section | Numerical Modeling, Remote Sensing, Geomatic & Application of Intelligence Artificielle | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202448904015 | |
| Published online | 09 February 2024 | |
Meteorological drought forecasting via soft computing models in Gharb perimeter (Northwest Morocco)
1 Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies of Tangier (FSTT), Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan 93000, Morocco
2 Natural Resources & Sustainable Development Laboratory, Earth Sciences Department, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra 14000, Morocco
* Corresponding author: sacharkis@gmail.com
Drought forecasting has implications for managing water and irrigation. Currently, with improved technology like artificial intelligence, forecasting can be more accurate. In this research, we chose standardized potential evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to characterize drought pattern. To achieve this, the data used was acquired from five meteorological stations in an irrigated Moroccan perimeter from 1976 to 2015. Besides, we predict SPEI at two scales (SPEI-3 and SPEI-6) with two inputs combination by exploring the capabilities of M5 pruned (M5P) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), along with their hybrid model (LightGBM-M5P). To assess their effectiveness, we employed three statistical metrics (R2, MAE and RMSE). The findings indicated that using a larger time scale for analysis enhances the ability to forecast SPEI values more accurately. Moreover, the forecasting analysis revealed that M5P model demonstrated superior performance compared to the other studied models.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2024
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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