E3S Web of Conferences
Volume 1, 2013Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Heavy Metals in the Environment
|Number of page(s)
|Heavy Metals in the Atmosphere II: “Global/Continental/Oceanic Scales”
|23 April 2013
An uncertainty estimate of global mercury emissions using the Monte Carlo technique
1 CNR-Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Division of Rende, Rende, Italy
2 CNR-Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Monterotondo Scalo, Italy
In recent years, a substantial amount of work has been done to evaluate uncertainty associated with major industrial source emissions. Yet, little has been done to assess uncertainty associated with natural source emissions. Importantly, uncertainty estimates continue to be particularly relevant in the assessment of potential regulatory options, as confidence in emissions can lead to different cost-benefit assessments. To address this problem, we employed the Monte Carlo technique to improve uncertainty estimates associated with mercury emissions from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Results demonstrate that uncertainties, as they are understood in the existing literature, are overestimated. While we are aware that a probabilistic approach like the Monte Carlo technique has certain limitations (it does not consider the accuracy of available input data, for example) it still is useful in crafting a better assessment of mercury emission uncertainty.
Key words: Uncertainty / stochastic simulation / error natural sources / anthropogenic sources
© Owned by the authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2013
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 2.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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