E3S Web Conf.
Volume 7, 20163rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016)
|Number of page(s)||11|
|Section||Forecasting and warning|
|Published online||20 October 2016|
Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB , UK
a Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i) an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF) trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii) SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii) fluvial applications in Scotland.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2016
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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