Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB , UK

^a Corresponding author: scole@ceh.ac.uk

Abstract

Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i) an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF) trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii) SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii) fluvial applications in Scotland.