Real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping for key railway infrastructure: a UK case study

¹ HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BA, UK
² Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
³ Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

^a Corresponding author: a.murphy@hrwallingford.com

Abstract

Flooding events that impede railway infrastructure can cause severe travel delays for the general public and large fines in delayed minutes for the rail industry. Early warnings of flood inundation can give more time to implement mitigation measures which help reduce cancellations, delays and fines. Initial work is reported on the development of a real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping system for the Cowley Bridge track area near Exeter, UK. This location is on one of the main access routes to South West England and has suffered major floods in the past resulting in significant transport impacts. Flood forecasting systems in the UK mainly forecast river level/flow rather than extent and depth of flood inundation. Here, the development of a chain of coupled models is discussed that link rainfall to river flow, river level and flood extent for the rail track area relating to Cowley Bridge. Historical events are identified to test model performance in predicting inundation of railway infrastructure. The modelling system will operate alongside a series of in-situ sensors chosen to enhance the flood mapping forecasting system. Sensor data will support offline model calibration/verification and real-time data assimilation as well as monitoring flood conditions to inform track closure decisions.