The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer

¹ Partner, Sayers and Partners, Fellow, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
² Horritt Consulting
³ Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University
⁴ British Geological Survey, England
⁵ Committee on Climate Change, London

^a Corresponding author: mike.steel@environment-agency.gov.uk, paul.sayers@sayersandpartners.co.uk

Abstract

The assessment of future flood risk presented considers three climate change scenarios (a 2°C and 4°C change in Global Mean Temperature by the 2050s and 2080s and a more extreme, but plausible future, the so-called H++ future), and three population growth projections (low, high and no growth). The analysis covers the whole of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and the risks associated with coastal, fluvial, surface water and groundwater flooding. Eight individual Adaptation Measures (including spatial planning, flood defence, catchment storage) are used to construct five Adaptation Scenarios (including enhanced and reduced levels of adaptation ambition in comparison to present day). Future flood risks for a range of climate, population and adaptation combinations are assessed using the UK Future Flood Explorer. The analysis highlights that significant increases in flood risk are projected to occur as early as the 2020s; a finding that reinforces the need for urgent action. The analysis also highlights that to manage risk effectively under a 2 or 4°C future an enhanced whole system approach to adaptation is needed. This will require action by a broad range of stakeholders, from national level down to individual households and businesses.