E3S Web Conf.
Volume 14, 2017Energy and Fuels 2016
|Number of page(s)||10|
|Published online||15 March 2017|
Near future of Polish energy system – COP21 and BAT conclusions
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Energy and Fuels, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Next years will be very important for the development of the Polish energy system. Substantial part of the existing capacities are obsolete and need to be replaced or at least deeply modernised to fulfil expected emissions regulations. A hybrid of TIMES-PL and TIMES-MACRO energy-economic models was used to analyse the possible changes in the power generation mix and economic impact of different scenarios that combine the climate and air pollution regulations. The results show that to maintain the CO2 emission reduction trend a combination of measures is needed including the use of renewables, nuclear, natural gas and clean coal technologies. However, such transition in the energy sector will lead to a cumulative GDP loss in the near future once the possible GDP gains could happen after 2045 in which the economic, technical and legislative conditions are very difficult to foresee.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2017
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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