E3S Web Conf.
Volume 53, 20182018 3rd International Conference on Advances in Energy and Environment Research (ICAEER 2018)
|Number of page(s)||5|
|Section||Environment Engineering, Environmental Safety and Detection|
|Published online||14 September 2018|
Regional Short-term Micro-climate Air Temperature Prediction with CBPNN
College of Information Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, P. R. China
2 Key laboratory of Agricultural Internet of Things, Ministry of Agriculture, P. R. China
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
This paper proposes a novel short-term air temperature prediction with three-layer Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) for the regional application of next 1-12 hours. With the continuous collection of eight real-time micro-climate parameters in the experimentation and demonstration stations in our university, the Multiple Stepwise Regression (MSR) is employed to screen the original historical data to find the parameter factors with greater contribution rate. On the basis of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value evaluating the optimal fitting degree of the stepwise regression, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) and the Resilient Propagation (R-Prop) training algorithm are employed to construct a Combined BPNN (CBPNN) with two MSR inputs. Compared with the known micro-climate data sets, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is to evaluate the applicability of CBPNN prediction model. The experimentation shows that the MAE is within 4°C in the next 12 hours. This proposal will be deployed in stations in our university for extreme weather warnings, and could be applied to some regional short-term parameter prediction for the future agricultural production service.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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