| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 84, 2019
14th International Scientific Conference “Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering” (PE 2018)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01004 | |
| Number of page(s) | 10 | |
| Section | Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20198401004 | |
| Published online | 11 February 2019 | |
Short-term load forecasting using Theta method
Czestochowa University of Technology, Electrical Engineering Faculty, 42-200 Czestochowa, Poland
* Corresponding author: dudek@el.pcz.czest.pl
The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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