E3S Web Conf.
Volume 127, 2019X Anniversary International Conference “Solar-Terrestrial Relations and Physics of Earthquake Precursors”
|Number of page(s)||14|
|Section||Physics of Earthquake Precursors|
|Published online||05 November 2019|
Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs
Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, Paratunka, Russia
In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0). The seismological parameter determined on the basis of the probabilistic model of the seismicity of Kamchatka region and allowing to estimate the region and the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in it is proposed as a mediumterm precursor. The complex of ionospheric disturbances is considered as a short-term precursor with a waiting period of up to 5 days for earthquakes. The estimation of their prognostic efficiency for the considered precursors is carried out by methods A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan, and their joint analysis was performed on the eve of earthquakes with KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0), that occurred in the period 2009–2018.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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