E3S Web Conf.
Volume 20, 2017VIII International Conference “Solar-Terrestrial Relations and Physics of Earthquake Precursors”
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Section||Physics of Earthquake Precursors|
|Published online||24 October 2017|
Estimation of the efficiency of the earthquake prediction on the basis of the analysis of ionospheric parameters
Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, Paratunka, Russia
A method of the operational forecast of strong earthquakes is considered. Exceedance of the current values of ionospheric critical frequency f0F2 over the median values during the disturbed state of the magnetosphere is considered to be a precursor. The reliability, validity and the efficiency of the precursor were evaluated by A.A. Gusev's and G.M. Molchan's methods for the period of 2009-2016. Earthquakes with the magnitude of M ≥ 5.0 occurring within the zone of precursor appearance determined by Dobrovol'skiy's radius were considered as forecasting earthquakes. It was shown that the precursor has the best predictive efficiency for the seismic events with the magnitude of M ≥ 6.5.
© The authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2017
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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