E3S Web Conf.
Volume 139, 2019Rudenko International Conference “Methodological problems in reliability study of large energy systems” (RSES 2019)
|Number of page(s)||5|
|Published online||16 December 2019|
About accidents cyclicality and mathematical model of failure rate in main electrical grids of power systems
1 JSC “CEMC UES”, 4, Belovezhskaya st., Moscow, Russia
2 National research university “MPEI”, Institute of Electrical Power Engineering, 14 Krasnokazarmennaya St, Moscow, Russia
3 JSC “R&D Center FGC UES”, Building 3, 22 Kashirskoye Highway, Moscow, Russia
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
The accidents cyclicality of 500 kVoverhead lines of a large region over an extended time period was studied. Significant fluctuations in the values of their failure rate (failure frequency) under the impact of natural and socio-economic factors are revealed. The wavelet spectrums of the failure frequency were constructed, which revealed several historical periods of accidences. It is proposed to consider the failure rate as the output signal of a dynamic system with many difficultly formalized inputs. The stability of this dynamic system is evaluated. The ways of formalizing a multidimensional dynamic model of accidence in main electrical grids of power systems are outlined.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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