E3S Web of Conf.
Volume 216, 2020Rudenko International Conference “Methodological problems in reliability study of large energy systems” (RSES 2020)
|Number of page(s)||5|
|Published online||14 December 2020|
On chaotic state indications of time series of failure rate of overhead lines
1 JSC “CEMC UES”, Moscow, Russia
2 National research university “MPEI”, Moscow, Russia
3 JSC “R&D Center FGC UES”, Moscow, Russia
* Corresponding author: Galiaskarov_im@center.cius-ees.ru
The accident rate of 500 kV overhead lines (OHL) of a large region on a long time interval is researched. Significant fluctuations in the values of their failure rate (failure frequency) are revealed. The specified parameter was analyzed using the mathematical apparatus of the theory of deterministic (dynamic) chaos. The fractality of the time series of the OHL failure rate was revealed, as well as the positiveness of its maximal Lyapunov exponent, which indicated the chaotic nature of the dynamic process under consideration. The insignificant (less than five years) depth of forecasting the reliability characteristics of overhead lines due to the indicated chaotic state is substantiated. This is an unfavorable factor that reduces the reliability of the reliability estimates of the main grid of power systems.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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