E3S Web Conf.
Volume 143, 20202nd International Symposium on Architecture Research Frontiers and Ecological Environment (ARFEE 2019)
|Number of page(s)||4|
|Section||Architectural Engineering and Urban Construction|
|Published online||24 January 2020|
Research on Railway Freight Volume Prediction Based on Neural Network
1 Beijing Jiaotong University, School of Economics and Management, 100044 Beijing, China
2 Beijing Jiaotong University, School of Economics and Management, 100044 Beijing, China
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Railway freight volume is an important part of the total social freight volume and an important indicator of the national economy. Scientific prediction of railway freight volume can provide decision support for the formulation of China's railway policy and railway investment planning, and is of great significance for adjusting transportation structure and building an efficient transportation network. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper constructs a combined prediction model based on GRA-GABP. The model uses grey correlation analysis to screen out the key influencing factors of railway freight volume, and optimizes the weight and threshold of BP neural network based on genetic algorithm to improve the prediction accuracy. This paper comprehensively considers the influencing factors of macroeconomics, market demand, logistics competition and railway supply. The historical data of railway freight transport from 1978 to 2018 is selected for case analysis. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the GRA-GA-BP based combination prediction model is significantly improved and can be used as an effective tool for railway freight volume forecasting.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
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