Drought dynamics in the East European Plain for the period 1980-2018

¹ Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 119991, Moscow, Russia
² Water Problems Institute of the RAS, 3 Gubkina st., 119333, Moscow, Russia

^* Corresponding author: kharlamov.m.a@gmail.com

Abstract

Drought is one of the most dangerous natural hazards that has a huge impact on the economy and population in the world and in Russia as well. A large number of studies speak of an increase in the number of droughts and low flow conditions, including Russia. In this work, an analysis was made of the conditions for droughts in the East European Plain over the past 38 years based on the data from the ERA-5 reanalysis. The atmospheric precipitation, air temperature over the seasons and the Palmer index (as a general indicator) for the study area were analyzed. Much attention was paid to the characteristics of the winter period, since the supposedly mild winters create favorable conditions for the formation of droughts in the summer period. It was found that the main factors affecting the drought formation of 2007-2018 was the lack of summer rainfall, and the remaining factors played a “preparatory” role in the process of the formation of large-scale drought.