Proposed Method for Probabilistic Energy Simulations for Multi-Family Dwellings

¹ NCC AB, Sweden
² Lund University, Sweden
³ EQUA Simulation AB, Sweden
⁴ StruSoft AB, Sweden

^* Corresponding author: stephen.burke@ncc.se

Abstract

As regulations regarding energy use and emissions of CO₂ equivalents in buildings become more stringent, the need for more accurate tools and improved methods for predicting these parameters in building performance simulations increases. In the first part of this project, a probabilistic method was developed and applied to the transient energy calculations and evaluated using a single-family dwelling case study. The method was used to successfully predict the variation of the energy use in 26 houses built in the same residential area and with identical building characteristics and services. This project continues the development and testing of the probabilistic method for energy calculations by applying it to a multi-family building. The complexity of the building model increases as the multi-family model consists of 52 zones, compared to the single-zone model used for the single-family dwelling. The multi-family model also includes additional parameters that are evaluated, such as the domestic hot water circulation losses. This paper presents the probabilistic method applied to the building performance simulations used to predict the energy use for the multi-family building and discusses the differences between the previous and new method used in this study.