Making rainfed crops adapted to potential climate change impacts: Modeling sustainable options

¹ Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, International Water Research Institute, Ben Guerir Morocco
² Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), unité mixte de recherche (UMR) Centre d’études spatiales de la biosphère (Cesbio), Toulouse, France
³ National School of Agriculture, Meknes, Morocco
⁴ Soil and Water Management, Soil Health, National Institute for Agricultural Research-Agadir, Morocco
⁵ Department of Geology, Laboratory of Geo-engineering and environment, Research Group “Water Sciences & Environment Engineering”, Faculty of Sciences, Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco
⁶ University Hassan II of Casablanca, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Moahammedia, Morocco
⁷ Laboratory of Functional Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, Fez, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: Y oussef.brouziyne@gmail.com

Abstract

Rainfed agriculture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This situation is expected to worsen under most future climate projections, which might increase the risks linked to food security and economies which depend on it. Providing insights about the potential responses of rainfed crops to climate change will helps on designing future adaptation strategies. In this study, large amount of data and the agro-hydrological model SWAT have been used to investigate future climate change impacts on rainfed wheat and sunflower crops in a semiarid watershed in Morocco (R’dom watershed). Downscaled CORDEX climate projections were used in generating future plants growth simulation for R’dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The main results of climate change scenarios highlighted that R’dom watershed will undergo significant decrease in water resources availability with more impact under the scenario RCP 8.5. Water productivities of both studied crops could be lower by up to -21% in comparison with baseline situation. Different sustainable management strategies have been simulated using SWAT model under climate change context. The adopted approach succeeded in building up sustainable management strategies toward secured food security in the future.