A short-term load forecasting taking into account the correlation of integrated energy load

¹ Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Renewable Energy Utilization and Energy Saving, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230009, China
² School of Electrical and Automatic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230009, China

^* Corresponding author’s e-mail: 1102167419@qq.com

Abstract

This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting method that takes into account the correlation of integrated energy load. The method use wavelet packet to decompose the electric cooling and heating load in frequency bands, analyze the cross-correlation of the electric cooling and heating load in each frequency band, and choose different forecasting methods according to the strength of the correlation to reflect the cross-correlation of the load itself; the method use recurrent neural network as a forecasting model to reflect the autocorrelation of the load itself. Compared with putting the electric cooling and heating load into the same recurrent neural network or back propagation neural network for forecasting, the method in this paper considers the autocorrelation of the electric cooling and heating load itself and the cross- correlation of the electric cooling and heating load in different frequency bands. This method reduces the average absolute percentage error of the load forecasting.