| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 202, 2020
The 5th International Conference on Energy, Environmental and Information System (ICENIS 2020)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 14005 | |
| Number of page(s) | 13 | |
| Section | Decision Support System | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020214005 | |
| Published online | 10 November 2020 | |
Information Systems of Forecasting Incidence Rates of Dengue Fever Disease Using Multivariate Fuzzy Time Series
1 Master Program of Information System, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sains and Matematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia
3 Department of Physics, Faculty of Sains and Matematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia
* Corresponding author: ardianfakhru3@gmail.com
Demak Regency is one of the regions in Central Java Province with a low incidence of Dengue Fever compared to other cities and districts. Even so, DHF control needs to be done to minimize the occurrence of dengue fever, because DHF is a fairly dangerous disease. One form of controlling the number of DHF events that is widely used is using forecasting models, one of them is using Fuzzy Time Series. The Multivariate Fuzzy Time Series (MFTS) model is a development of the Fuzzy Time Series model that can be used to forecast using time series data by using more than one variable for forecasting, compared to the Fuzzy Time Series method that usually using only one variable. Based on the research results obtained, the MFTS model has a fairly accurate MAPE value, wherein the best MAPE was at 3 years scenario with MAPE 10,728%.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.