Matrix of Vulnerability of Decentralized Areas to Local Energy Security Risks in the Northern and Arctic Zones in the Structural Set of Solutions

¹ Chukotsk branch of the North-Eastern Federal University Scientific, Anadyr, Russia
¹ Technical Institute (branch) of North-Eastern Federal University Scientific named after M.K. Ammosov, Neryungri, Russia
² National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University Energy Engineering School, Tomsk, Russia

Abstract

The tension of the state of decentralized power supply systems in the northern regions, including the Arctic zones, has always been determined by the specific features of their geographical location and the functioning of the economy, which in themselves generate a number of local energy security risks. Nevertheless, both modern and retrospective analysis of energy zones in isolated hard-to-reach territories retains an assessment of the crisis of the situation without the dynamic type of its improvement in ensuring energy security. The aggregate analysis of the formed risk matrix with the heterogeneous nature of their sources, the categorization of the depth of consequences and the probability of implementation, made it possible to obtain a map of local risks of energy security in decentralized regions. On the basis of this, an approach and structure of a set of recommendations for improving energy security is presented in the model of combining the rank of the indicator’s importance, the priority of risks and the expected social, environmental and economic effects in a reasonable option for choosing solutions and recommended measures to ensure a stable state and development of decentralized zones of power supply and energy facilities of territories Northern regions and Arctic zones.