| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 209, 2020
ENERGY-21 – Sustainable Development & Smart Management
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 06011 | |
| Number of page(s) | 6 | |
| Section | Session 5. Reliability of Fuel and Energy Supply to the Consumer, Energy Security | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020906011 | |
| Published online | 23 November 2020 | |
Multy-year oscillations investigation of winter temperatures Prediction of integrated temperature difference during the heating period
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, Department of Applied Mathematics, 664033 Irkutsk, Lermontov st., 130, Russia
* Corresponding author: ivan-khazheev@yandex.ru
To estimate possible deviations in fuel consumption for heating based on meteorological observations of previous years, the integrated temperature difference inside and outside the building during the heating season is used. When the heating period is divided into two subperiods relative to the considered date (for example, before and after December 1), the accumulated and residual integral temperature differences are obtained. The assumption about the presence of a statistical relationship between the accumulated and residual integral temperature difference is confirmed. A model for predicting the probability of the expected values of the integral temperature difference for the upcoming heating period is developed. The model is focused on obtaining matrices of conditional probabilities of observations from intervals of dividing the accumulated integral temperature differences into intervals of residual integral temperature differences.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
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