On technology for modeling and forecasting the interrelated development of regional fuel and energy complexes of Russia and Mongolia

Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of SB RAS, Lermontov st. 134, 664033 Irkutsk, Russia

^* Corresponding author: kazakov@icc.ru

Abstract

The paper considers the main ideas of proposed computational technology for scenario modeling and forecasting the development of the national fuel and energy complexes of Russia and Mongolia, regarding to the intercountry trade in fuel and energy resources. The proposing technology exploits the ideas of multi-agent systems (MASs) and agent-based simulation models (ABSMs) as they can act as unifying means for different types of decision-making methods by distributed objects. Methodological principles and architecture for ABSM of the national fuel and energy complexes of Russia and Mongolia were proposed. The implementation issues of the model in the Adskit software tool is discussed. The problem of laying routes of extended energy objects is also considered. Based on the principles of geometric optics the author’s solution algorithm in the form of a special case of the variational problem was proposed to deal with this problem. The application of MAS and ABSM paradigms for forecasting and evaluating the state of the fuel and energy sector in Russia and Mongolia allows one to organize a step-by-step research of the energy system with the gradual development of the model: increasing the types of objects and agents; improving decision-making algorithms, including those based on mathematical models; creating complex scenarios. The technology forms methodological basis for supporting decision-making process of evaluation the prospective variants of bilateral energy cooperation of Russia and Mongolia and related project effectiveness.