E3S Web Conf.
Volume 214, 20202020 International Conference on Energy Big Data and Low-carbon Development Management (EBLDM 2020)
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Section||Digital Development and Environmental Management of Energy Supply Chain|
|Published online||07 December 2020|
Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia
International Business School, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Hexi Distract, Tianjin, 300202, China
In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.