E3S Web Conf.
Volume 233, 20212020 2nd International Academic Exchange Conference on Science and Technology Innovation (IAECST 2020)
|Number of page(s)||5|
|Section||NESEE2020-New Energy Science and Environmental Engineering|
|Published online||27 January 2021|
Using Trend Extrapolation Model to Predict the Needs of Elderly Care Talents in Beijing Institutions
1 School of Economics and Management Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing, China
2 School of Economics and Management Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing, China
2020-2050 is a period of rapid development of China's population aging, and it is also a critical period for the country to actively respond to population aging. Under the background of the combination of medical care and nursing, institutional elderly care services, as an important branch of the multi-level elderly care service system, have become the main battlefield of the integrated medical and elderly care policy. Therefore, institutional care talents for the aged have also become a key link in improving the quality of life of the elderly population. This paper using trend extrapolation model to predict the needs of elderly care talents in institutions in Beijing, including nursing staff who provide basic living care and professional medical staff who provide services such as rehabilitation, medical treatment, nutrition, and psychological consultation. The results show that, in 2050, the demand for institutional elderly nursing staff in Beijing will exceed 150,000, and the demand for institutional elderly medical staff will reach about 20,000.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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