| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 329, 2021
4th International Conference on Green Energy and Sustainable Development (GESD 2021)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01024 | |
| Number of page(s) | 7 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202132901024 | |
| Published online | 09 December 2021 | |
Forecasting method of clean energy development potential considering sector coupling
1 State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Research Institute, Shenyang 110006, China.
2 School of Economy and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
3 School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
* Corresponding author: shenweijie233@163.com
Sector coupling includes not only the coupling within energy sectors such as electricity, heat and gas, but also the coupling between energy sector and transportation sector, construction sector and industrial sector. This article introduces a method for measuring the development potential of clean energy based on sector coupling. First, the analysis model of electric energy substitution potential is constructed, the analysis object is determined, and the analysis object is quantified. On the basis of the definition of clean energy development potential, an IPAT model for electric energy substitution is constructed to realize the comprehensive evaluation of clean energy. Secondly, based on Markov theory to realize the sub-path calculation of the development potential of clean energy. Finally, based on the IPAT model and the decoupling theoretical model, this paper sets up three different alternative scenarios to make a more comprehensive prediction and analysis of the medium and long-term clean energy development potential, and applies the introduced measurement methods to the calculation of China’s clean energy development potential. The results show the effectiveness of the algorithm in the calculation of the development potential of clean energy based on sector coupling.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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