Methods for long-term forecasting of water availability in spring floods (r. Arpa – p. Jermuk)

¹ Yerevan State University, Department of Physical Geography and Hydrometeorology, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Yerevan, Armenia
² Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Institute of Hydrology and Oceanology, Department of Engineering Hydrology, St. Petersburg, Russia
³ Siberian Federal University, Institute of Space and Information Technologies, Chair of Systems of Artificial Intelligence, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

^* Corresponding author: vmargaryan@ysu.am

Abstract

The article discusses the main physical and geographical factors, affecting the runoff of spring floods in the Arpa rivers catchment in the station Jermuk. Also the article discusses the development of a methodology for long-term forecasting of runoff volume of spring flood (WIV–VI) of river Arpa, station Jermuk. The study used data of water discharges of Arpa river catchment (station Jermuk), air temperature, precipitation, reserve water in snow at meteostation Jermuk. A linear correlation was also revealed between the values of the annual runoff and runoff of spring floods in Arpa river catchment, which can be used to predict the annual runoff. To predict the volume of spring flood runoff, regression method and obtained multivariate correlation dependencies. Assessment of statistical significance and stability the proposed models showed their «satisfactory» quality and the possibility of using in the practice of engineering and hydrological forecasts.