Assessment of risk-forming factors of construction production in conditions of uncertainty

Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, 129377, Moscow, Russia

^* Corresponding author: ivan2193@yandex.ru

Abstract

Many changes have occurred in the construction industry over the past few years as a result of the development of technologies and specifications of the materials used and modern technologies, which led to an increase in the accuracy and speed of implementation of various stages of the project life cycle, and it became important to anticipate external and internal risks of the project and plan a response to these risks, since they have the effect of an unaccounted price increase and an excess of the contract period. From this perspective, risk assessment was a necessary tool to determine the risks to which the project was exposed in order to find the best way to deal with them. The aim of the study is to identify the most significant types of risk factors faced by the construction industry, which lead to exceeding the specified time for implementation and to large losses, which helps stakeholders in this area to predict potential obstacles and be able to quickly make appropriate decisions. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire survey was conducted to collect information from specialists in the construction industry, as well as references in this field to express an opinion on the intensity of the impact of each studied risk factor. Thereafter, Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess the risk factors studied. The study found that Monte Carlo simulations, which depend on repeated scenarios hundreds or thousands of times, can provide an accurate estimate of the risks faced by investment and construction projects in conditions of uncertainty.