The dynamic model for the sustainable development of the domestic tourism in the Russian Federation

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint-Petersburg, Polytechnicheskaya str., 29, Russia

^* Corresponding author: kirillova_tan@rambler.ru

Abstract

The article examines the role of the tourism industry in creating new jobs in the regions and increasing the welfare of the population. The multiplicative effect of the tourism industry is expressed in the active development of related sectors of the national economy. The spillover effect of tourism spending on the region’s economy can be estimated using an “input-output” model. The paper provides an algorithm for determining the impact of changes in tourism spending on gross output by industry, income and employment in the region. Studies have shown that the development of tourism in St. Petersburg leads to an uneven formation of output, income and employment in various sectors of the region’s economy. The development of the concept of sustainable tourism development should be based on an assessment of the socio-economic state and prospects for the development of the tourism industry. The methodology, which includes an assessment of the resource and throughput potential, is most fully consistent with the principles of the concept of sustainable tourism development. Application of the World Bank methodology for the development of the adjusted net savings index. It allows you to internalize the external costs of economic activity associated with negative impacts on ecosystems and public health, which are an underestimated value in models of sustainable tourism development. The combination of this methodology with traditional multifactor models for assessing the level of tourism development will allow a more targeted approach to the choice of mechanisms and objects of state regulation at the regional levels within the framework of indicative planning.