Ultra-short-term Radiation Prediction based on FY-4 Satellite Cloud Images and Artificial Neural Network

College of Geography and Environmental engineering, Lanzhou City University, Lanzhou 730070, China

^* Corresponding author: jdy890719@lzb.ac.cn

Abstract

Surface solar radiation is affected by many random mutation factors, which makes the ultra-short-term prediction face great challenges. In this paper, the surface radiation observation station in the northwest (Dunhuang) desert area with broad PV prospects is selected as the research object. The input parameters of the test sample are: cloud forecast value, reflectivity and brightness temperature value of a satellite cloud image closest to the forecast time. The MATLAB software is used to model the prediction program and to predict the surface solar radiation in the next 10 minutes. A combined algorithm of satellite cloud images and neural network is applied to predict surface solar radiation for the next 10 minutes and is compared with the measured surface solar radiation. The model is a lightweight calculation model, it satisfies the calculation precision of engineering requirements. The results show that the diurnal variation trend of measured and predicted radiation values is basically the same. Among them, the prediction accuracy of the model for cloudy days is higher, while for snowy days with more abrupt changes, the prediction error of abrupt points is larger. The model can provide reference for ultra-short-term prediction of surface radiation.