Study of urbanization trend prediction in Nanchang based on CA-Markov model

School of Civil and Surveying Engineering, Jiangxi University of Technology, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000, China

Abstract

In order to promote the healthy development of Nanchang city in the future and maintain the virtuous cycle of urban ecosystem, this paper uses CA-Markov model to simulate and forecast the land use of Nanchang city in 2030 and explore the urbanization process of Nanchang city. Firstly, the land use changes in Nanchang from 2000 to 2020 are described, followed by land use simulations for Nanchang in 2020 as a verification of accuracy, and land use projections for Nanchang in 2030 based on accuracy requirements. The results show that: (1) the rate of urban expansion will continue to be maintained or even gradually increase from 2020 to 2030 under the expansion model based on the period 2000-2020. (2) The main factor in the change of land use types in the built-up area of Nanchang over the past two decades is socio-economic factors, with natural factors taking second place. (3) The area of land development intensity in Nanchang will reach its peak in 2030, and the expansion of the municipal districts will gradually slowdown in favour of Nanchang and Xinjian counties, which have a more extensive land area and are close to the central urban area.