| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 371, 2023
International Scientific Conference “Fundamental and Applied Scientific Research in the Development of Agriculture in the Far East” (AFE-2022)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 05073 | |
| Number of page(s) | 9 | |
| Section | Environmental Economics and Management | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202337105073 | |
| Published online | 28 February 2023 | |
Statistical assessment of biogenic risk for the human population caused by COVID-19
Don State Technical University, Gagarin square 1, 344003 Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
* Corresponding author: arkomaazimov@mail.ru
In the paper an appreciable hierarchy of mathematical models is proposed. It describes the actual dynamics of COVID-19 thickness during 02/12/2020 – 09/22/2021. The incidence sub-model reflects reliably regular (aperiodic and periodic), as well as random components. It is established that the dynamics of the epidemy is essentially seasonal thrice a year. Model elaborated enables to clarify and explain weak weekly fluctuations in the death rate dynamics. It turned out that the maximum risk of death is at 15 and 22 days of disease duration. It means that this virus will presumably be a "satellite" of the human population with corresponded mortality at 1.75%. Calculations performed enable to estimate the level of stochastics in disease and death dynamics. It is near to the amplitude of periodic variation. Computer experiments with developed model predict the global dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19. New epidemic data can show the prospect of improving our model to regard the competitiveness between new sporadically emerging virus strains.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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