| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 448, 2023
The 8th International Conference on Energy, Environment, Epidemiology and Information System (ICENIS 2023)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 05006 | |
| Number of page(s) | 12 | |
| Section | Epidemiology | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202344805006 | |
| Published online | 17 November 2023 | |
Analysis Of Local Stability Of The Model On COVID-19 Spread In DKI Jakarta Province
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia, 50275.
* Corresponding author: chikaauditaariyani@students.undip.ac.id widowati@lecturer.undip.ac.id
The province of DKI Jakarta in Indonesia has an advanced amount of COVID-19 incidents. Hence its dispersion must be restrained. The SEAIQHRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, Infected, Quarantined, Hospitalized, Recovery, Deceased) model for the dispersion of COVID-19 was evolved in this article. Next, using NGM method to compute basic reproduction number and employing Routh-Hurwitz criterion method to analyze its local stability. Further, two equilibrium points, namely: endemic and disease-free equilibrium points, are obtained. The value of basic reproduction number is used to determine stability analysis. If basic reproduction number less than one, then the endemic equilibrium point is considered asymptotically stable. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the recovery rate of those who are symptomatic subpopulations can help stop the propagation of COVID-19 illness. This article employs data from the DKI Jakarta Province in numerical simulations to depict the dynamics of the COVID-19 dispersion model. According to the analysis's findings, the COVID-19 dispersion model is asymptotically stable at the endemic equilibrium point with ℜ0=2,1966. This indicate that the average of each infected individual can infect two susceptible persons so that the number of infected person will increase over time and cause an outbreak, which means that COVID-19 will remain in the community.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.