Analyzing Morocco’s Electricity Consumption Changes with an LMDI Decomposition Model: A Global and Sectoral Perspective

¹ Faculty of Science and Technology of Safi, IMII Laboratory, Morocco
² Graduate School of Technology of Safi, Industrial Maintenance Department, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: haouraji.charifa@gmail.com

Abstract

Over the past decade, Morocco has experienced a surge in electricity demand, driven by economic growth and population expansion. This study aims to delve into the factors influencing electricity consumption in Morocco from 2000 to 2020, examining both the overall national trends and sector-specific dynamics. Indeed, we employ the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to assess changes in electricity consumption, considering various components like electricity's share, energy intensity, economic structure, economic activity, and population. At the national level, our findings indicate that economic growth has been the primary driver, contributing 66.22% to the total change in electricity consumption, followed by electricity's share effect (39.15%), population scale (29.44%), and the sectorial structure effect (10.85%). Conversely, energy intensity exhibited a declining trend, acting as a restraining factor. Among the analysed sectors, we observed distinct patterns that exhibited some degree of variation. While the agricultural, transport, and residential sectors were primarily affected by the production-per-capita effect, the industrial and commercial sectors were mainly influenced by the intensity effect. The results mentioned above highlight the significance of recent efforts to improve energy efficiency within the Moroccan economy. They also emphasize the necessity of further developing these strategies and introducing novel approaches to rationalize electricity consumption.