Energy Consumption in the Transport Sector: Trends and Forecast Estimates in Morocco

¹ Engineering, Industrial Management and Innovation Laboratory, Hassan 1er University-Settat, Morocco
² Higher School of Technology, Cadi Ayyad University. Morocco

^* Corresponding author: h.oubnaki@uca.ac.ma

Abstract

The increase in energy consumption in the transport sector in Morocco makes it necessary to develop reliable energy demand forecasting models. Thus, in this study, five mathematical models were selected to estimate the energy demand of this sector using regression methods for the next ten years. In the development of the models, the gross domestic product, population, vehicle fleet on the road, vehicle registration, activity rate by gender and category, and the rate of working women were taken as parameters. Historical data from 1990 to 2014 were used for the training and testing phases of the models. Using the Partial Least Squares Regression method, the energy consumption in the transport sector is about 8095.49 Ktoe in 2030, and therefore Morocco must continue to strive to reduce energy consumption in order to reduce CO2 emissions by respecting with its national and international commitments.