Contribution of weather conditions and anthropogenic activity to the variation of grain yields in the North-West of Russia

All-Russian Institute of Plant Protection, 196608, St.Petersburg, Russia

^* Corresponding author: ashpanev@mail.ru

Abstract

Current trends in climate change associated with the growth of heat supply contribute to the growth of bioclimatic potential and the increase in productivity of grain crops in the North-West of Russia. In such conditions, research is relevant aimed at clarifying the contribution of weather conditions and anthropogenic activity in the formation of the crop. The research was conducted on the crops of winter rye, spring barley, winter wheat, and spring wheat of the experimental landfill of the Menkovsky branch of the Agrophysical Research Institute. We studied various factors of anthropogenic activity, such as the level of mineral or nitrogen nutrition, an integrated plant protection system, seeding rates, and the size of seed material. Variance analysis was used in statistical processing. According to the results obtained, weather conditions were the most significant factor of productivity for winter cereals, and mineral nutrition was crucial for spring crops. The integrated protection system was less important than both the weather conditions of the growing season and the background of mineral nutrition of cultivated plants. This factor appeared to be the least significant for winter rye, which often has a favorable phytosanitary situation. The novelty of the data obtained lies in determining the predominant value in varying the yield of nitrogen fertilizers and herbicide treatment for spring wheat. A little less critical were the seeding rate and the size of the seed material.