A study of automobile market structure prediction based on multivariate logit model with embedded Newton's method

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd., Dongli District, Tianjin, China

^* Corresponding author: jiaoyufan@catarc.ac.cn

Abstract

In order to deeply understand the factors that consumers focus on when choosing models with different technological routes, and to predict the structure of the future automobile market accordingly, a multivariate logit model incorporating Newton's method of optimization is used, which is able to accurately measure the weights of the various factors that influence the process of choosing models by consumers, in order to reflect the degree of heterogeneity of consumers' preferences for these factors, and to predict the future market share of the different technological routes on the basis of this model. Based on this, it predicts the share of different technological routes in the future market. The results of this study show that when choosing a vehicle of different technological routes, convenience of replenishment is the most important factor, with a preference weight of 0.39. In contrast, the imitation coefficient has the lowest preference weight of 0.11, which suggests that consumers are more likely to take into account their personal experience rather than the choices made by others in their vehicle purchasing decisions. In addition, in the prediction of future technological routes in the automobile market, it is also found that by 2025, consumers' tendency to choose new energy vehicles will be more than 50%, and by 2030, the proportion will be more than 70%. Meanwhile, the market share of sales of traditional fuel vehicles is expected to fall to 17% by 2035.