Spatiotemporal analysis and identifying the driving forces of land use change in the Abay district (Karagandy Region, Kazakhstan)

¹ Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Department of Cartography and Geoinformatics, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
² S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Department of Geodesy and Cartography, Astana, Kazakhstan.
³ Kazakh National Women’s Pedagogical University, Department of Biology, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
⁴ Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Department of Geography, Land Management and Cadastre, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
⁵ "TIIAME" National Research University, Department of Humanities, str. Kory Niyoziy, 39, Tashkent 100000, Uzbekistan

^* Corresponding author: oalipbeki@gmail.com

Abstract

Land use and cover change (LUCC) affects the nature of human activities in a particular area. Therefore, the manifestation of the driving forces of these changes plays a decisive role. This paper analyses the LULC dynamics of the Abay district of Karagandy oblast from 2016 to 2023. The study’s main objective is to find the driving forces of land use based on the integrated assessment of spatio-temporal data (STD) and socio-economic, climatic and environmental indicators (SECEI). Classification of Sentinel- 2 images into LULC classes is carried out using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The driving factors were assessed using principal component analysis (PCA) and linear regression (LR). The results obtained can be used to guide the development planning of the territory.