Towards Fault Detection in Industrial Equipment through Energy Consumption Analysis: Integrating Machine Learning and Statistical Methods

¹ LGM, Faculty of Science and Technology, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University Fes, Morocco
² Mathematical and Computer Modeling Laboratory, University moulay Ismail, ENSAM, Meknes, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: nada.baddou@usmba.ac.ma

Abstract

Accurately forecasting the energy consumption of industrial equipment and linking these forecasts to equipment health has become essential in modern manufacturing. This capability is crucial for advancing predictive maintenance strategies to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we propose a hybrid model that combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for energy consumption prediction with a statistical change-point detection algorithm to identify significant shifts in consumption patterns. These shifts are then correlated with the equipment’s health status, providing a comprehensive overview of energy usage and potential failure points. In our case study, we began by evaluating the prediction model to confirm the performance of LSTM, comparing it with several machine learning models commonly used in the literature, such as Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and GRU. After assessing different loss functions, the LSTM model achieved the strongest prediction accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.07, an MAE of 0.0188, and an R² of 92.7%. The second part of the model, which focuses on detecting change points in consumption patterns, was evaluated by testing several cost functions combined with binary segmentation and dynamic programming. Applied to a real-world case, it successfully detected a change point two months before equipment failure, offering the potential to reduce energy consumption by 27,052 kWh. This framework not only clarifies the relationship between equipment health and CO2 emissions but also provides actionable insights into emission reduction, contributing to both economic and environmental sustainability.