Predicting the present-day distribution of Elphidium crispum through species distribution modeling

¹ Applied Geosciences Research & Development Laboratory, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tétouan
² EMRN, FSTT, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tangier, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: ayoub.elbakkali@etu.uae.ac.ma

Abstract

Benthic foraminifera are widely recognized as sensitive bioindicators of marine environmental conditions, yet their large-scale ecological niches remain poorly quantified. Elphidium crispum, a cosmopolitan epifaunal species typical of temperate shelves, plays an important role in benthic ecosystems and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The research applied a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) technique with the MaxEnt algorithm to forecast the E. crispum habitat suitability worldwide today, georeferenced occurrences and oceanographic variables (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, primary productivity, and bathymetry) being the basis. AUC of 0.989 was excellent predictive performance by the model, and the dominant environmental drivers were identified as primary productivity and temperature, oxygen and bathymetry next. Areas of high suitability predicted mainly run along temperate, productive continental shelves, especially in the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, Northwest Pacific, southern Australia-New Zealand, and some South Atlantic and Pacific margins. Thus, it will be possible to bring out the impact of food and heat on E. crispum distribution, and its oxygenated, shelf-linked habitats will be confirmed. The paper presents the first global-scale quantitative evaluation of E. crispum's ecological niche which will be a great help in the future for monitoring, biogeographical analysis, and paleoenvironmental interpretations of the ocean condition change.