Analysis of Forecasting Land Area and Rice Production in Riau Province for Rice Food Security Year 2025-2030

¹ Universitas Lancang Kuning, Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, 28261 Pekanbaru, Indonesia
² Universitas Lancang Kuning, Department of Agrotechnology, Faculty of Agriculture, 28261 Pekanbaru, Indonesia
³ Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, 53122 Purwekorto, Indonesia, 53122

^* Corresponding author: desma@unilak.ac.id

Abstract

Rice is a staple food worldwide. Both developed and developing countries produce and consume rice. Some of the leading food crops are rice, wheat, and corn. However, until now, rice has become the most important commodity, especially in low- to middle-income areas, one of which is the State of Indonesia, which accounts for more than 90% of Indonesia's population, making rice a staple and ranking fourth in global rice consumption. This study aims to model forecasts of permanent rice field area and rice production in Riau Province for 2025-2030 using the ARIMA model, and to analyze the condition of rice food security based on the population's rice consumption. The ARIMA model is applied to forecast the area of permanent rice fields and rice production using monthly time-series data from 2020 to 2024. The forecast results show that the area of permanent rice fields has decreased significantly from 41,376 hectares in 2025 to 7,841 hectares in 2030, and rice production is also expected to decline steadily from 188,948 tons in 2025 to 130,872 tons in 2030. With increased rice consumption and population growth, Riau Province is expected to experience a growing rice deficit. This deficit reflects a threat to rice food security, which will rely on imports. This study suggests policies to protect agricultural land, improve agricultural technology, and diversify food to ensure better rice food security in the future.