Unlocking the future of rice production for food security in Southeast Asia amid climate change concerns: Arima forecasting

¹ Doctoral Program of Economics, Economics and Business Faculty, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia.
² Economic Development Study Program, Economics and Business Faculty, Sebelas Maret University Surakarta, Indonesia.

^* Corresponding author: selfia.bintari@staff.uns.ac.id

Abstract

Southeast Asia is a region with a tropical climate suitable for rice farming. Several Southeast Asian countries are experiencing problems in dealing with climate change, which disrupts rice productivity as a staple food for the community. The purpose of this study is to determine the mapping of average temperature and precipitation as a sign of climate change and to predict how rice productivity will be in the next decade. The Geo-map Orange Data Mining approach is used for mapping and ARIMA models for predicting Southeast Asian rice productivity in the future. This study found that temperature and precipitation have the potential to shorten the plant growth cycle, increase the rate of evaporation, and cause heat stress, which can cause floods and droughts that disrupt rice plant productivity. Although the ARIMA prediction results for countries such as Cambodia and the Philippines have significant coefficients in the ARIMA model, they still show unpredictable spikes due to high environmental pressure. This suggests that climate variation, particularly temperature and precipitation, plays a significant role in shaping the long-term dynamics of rice production. Policies regarding food security, particularly rice productivity, need to address climate factors by developing climate-resilient varieties, managing irrigation, and educating farmers on climate-smart agricultural practices.