Exploring climate change threats to rice production in Indonesia using CMIP6 projections

¹ Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
² Karbon Natura Indonesia, Bogor, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: armi.susandi@itb.ac.id

Abstract

Rice is the staple food for most Indonesians, making stable rice production central to national food security. Java and Sumatera, the two most populous and agriculturally important islands, together contribute around 75% of national rice output, yet a large share of paddy cultivation remains rainfed and reliant on traditional practices. This dependence on natural rainfall and temperature regimes heightens the sensitivity of rice production to climate variability and intensifies its vulnerability under climate change. This study assesses future risks to rice production in Java and Sumatera by analysing projected changes in extremely hot days and consecutive dry days (CDD) under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Using downscaled projections from the NEX-GDPP CMIP6 dataset, the heat- and drought-stress evolution across two major planting seasons and the associated implications for rice yields is explored. The results show substantial increases in both hot days and CDD. Heat- and drought-stress intensify even under a low-emission pathway, which threaten Indonesia’s rice production. By linking projected changes in climate extremes with potential yield impacts, the study underscores the dual importance of determined mitigation and targeted adaptation to support climate-resilient rice production and safeguard Indonesia’s food security.