The impact of climate variability on pneumonia and tuberculosis incidence: A case study in Surakarta

¹ Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret
² Department of Clinical Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret
³ Department of Cardiology and Vascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret
⁴ Department of Pulmonology and Respiratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret
⁵ Medical Doctor Profession Program, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret
⁶ Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret
⁷ Department of Forensic, Universitas Sebelas Maret Hospital, Jl. Ahmad Yani No. 200, Makamhaji, Kartasura, Sukoharjo, Central Java, 57161, Indonesia
⁸ Department of Paediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret

^* Corresponding author: dr.nurhasan21@staff.uns.ac.id

Abstract

The impact of changing weather patterns on respiratory diseases is an urgent public health issue, especially in Surakarta. Global climate change poses a serious threat to public health. This study aims to investigate the relationship between annual pneumonia and tuberculosis (TB) incidence and meteorological variables in Surakarta, Central Java province, Indonesia. The methodology of this study uses public data from 2022 to 2024 to compare the incidence of disease cases data, annual rainfall, rainy days, average temperature, and humidity A descriptive-analytical study utilizing a correlational approach was employed to compare the trend of each climate variable with the trend of disease cases across the two years to establish a positive or negative correlation. The incidence of pneumonia spikes (from 233 to 520) directly reflects the shift from a very dry 2022 to much wetter conditions in 2023 and 2024. Conversely, Tuberculosis cases continue to increase every year (from 786 to 1,054) suggesting that non-climatic factors remain the main drivers of the spread of TB. Our findings indicate that the burden of pneumonia is highly sensitive to extreme weather. It highlights the apparent need to integrate climate forecasting into public health surveillance to anticipate better and prepare for outbreaks of Pneumonia.