Urbanization and energy demand: Analyzing the impact of urban growth on electricity needs using machine learning

¹ Civil Engineering, Yogyakarta National Institute of Technology, Sleman, Indonesia
² Regional and Urban Planning, Yogyakarta National Institute of Technology, Sleman, Indonesia

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Abstract

As urban areas expand, the challenge of balancing urban development and electricity consumption become pregresively pressing. This study explores the relationship between urban growth and electricity demand. The research addresses key issues, including how different degrees of urbanization influence electricity needs and the factors driving energy demand in urban environments. This study employs a combination of spatial and statistical techniques to analyze the relationship between urbanization and electricity demand. The data used specifically from 2015, 2020, and 2025. The sources used for the analysis include the Global Housing Settlement Layer, Landsat 8 imagery, and electricity supply data from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Kulon Progo Regency. The results of the study indicate a correlation between the degree of urbanization and electricity demand. Electricity demand increases in line with urban growth. Based on predictions, the electricity demand will be 889.620.726 VA in 2030. The urban growth is indicated by increasing of built area which will reach of 12,785.53 Ha in 2030, or increases 14,59& per year in average. This research contributes to the literature by providing new insights into the dynamics of urbanization and energy consumption, offering policy recommendations for cities to manage their growing energy needs sustainably.