Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecological Resilience in the Yangtze River Basin and Its Response to Extreme Climate

School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Under global warming, frequent extreme climate events threaten ecosystem stability. Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological resilience and its response to climate stress is crucial for ecological management. Using multi-source data from 2000 to 2024, the study constructed an ecological resilience evaluation system, employed Theil-Sen trend analysis, M-K test, and a two-way fixed effects model to reveal resilience patterns in the Yangtze River Basin and differential responses of land cover types to extreme climate. The results show that: (1) Ecological resilience exhibits higher values in the south, with an overall increasing trend. The Sichuan Basin and middle-lower plain show significant improvement, the Qinghai source region shows recovery, and the lower Jinsha River shows degradation. (2) Extreme climate displays an increasing trend in the west but decreasing in the east, spatially coupled with resilience changes. (3) Response to extreme climate differs fundamentally among land cover types: forest demonstrates high resistance but slow recovery, with lagged negative effects from high temperature; grassland exhibits low resistance but fast recovery and is sensitive to moisture changes. (4) Extreme precipitation positively buffers cropland and built-up areas in the current period but shows significant lagged negative effects. The response of ecological resilience to climate change exhibits significant lag effects and varies by land cover type, necessitating tailored enhancing strategies.